At 6:35 A.M. local time we had a mild Southeast breeze off the land with smooth ocean waters...a sure sign Vance was still inbound and pulling air off the land. By 6:40 the wind had switched to the North and rapidly increased to create some white caps between the shore and the islands. That was a sure sign Vance had made landfall and we were getting a classic backside of the storm wind reversal.
As predicted the wind is well below Tropical Storm level, and no stronger than many afternoons. The waves aren't anywhere near big enough to do any more damage as we hoped, although a very high tide isn't helpful. Tongue in cheek I will tell you the above information is based on direct observation from myself and others...without the benefit of a magic linked website with all the answers (based in Miami Beach, Florida about 1,800 miles / 2,900 kilometers away).
You see the folks in Florida didn't update Vance from 1:00 A.M until 7:30 A.M, at which time the storm had already gone to ground near Teacapan about halfway between Maz and San Blas. That would be over 200 miles south of the position they predicted last evening. Thank God this wasn't a damaging storm, and our original prediction Vance would be much ado about nothing was correct.
To be fair I likewise predicted landfall well north of Maz. However I thought they missed badly on the claimed 45 MPH / 72 KPH wind, and wrote the velocity would be low enough to be insignificant, regardless of the storm track. Which brings me to the real reason I've brought this up, which is not to cast aspersions or brag.
Rather to remind people there is NO weather person for Maz and all reports are computer models based on readings. Furthermore almost every popular weather reporting bureau, like The Weather Channel in the US and Accuweather in Canada, takes their readings from the airport. That's a classic case of garbage in / garbage out, since we all know weather at the airport is quite dissimilar to what you experience upon reaching your home or resort.
Plus you don't have anyone on the ground to correct obvious mistakes, a la the bizarre Weather Underground prediction of "freezing rain" for last night. Now there was a spooky and unusual small cloud that literally created a shroud over the top half of Bird Island around midnight. Maybe while the rest of us were "suffering" with rain and 70 F. / 21 C. degree temperatures, inside the mysterious shroud rain magically fell at 32 F. / 0 C.....Haha!
This looks to be the tropic's last chance since the wind from this event made water temperatures even less attractive for a storm to traverse. Moreover the unusual aspect of Vance pulling air way inland off the mountains will likely result in a fast transition to the kind of dry and mild winter weather Maz is used to from November through March. Enjoy !
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