Despite the ocean water cooling considerably, it's still warm enough to provide fuel for a tormenta (storm). We've talked before about what I call The Cradle of Storms....better known as The Gulf of Tehuantepec in the far south of Mexico.
A couple days ago a new tormenta formed near there, albeit comfortably offshore. As of this morning the storm officially reached the tropical storm threshold of 35 Knots (40.3 MPH / 64.8 KPH) Of course tropical storms get names and since we're up to V this year, our new babe in The Cradle was dubbed "Vance."
At the beginning of the season our first several storms marched out of Mexican seas straight to the west, with just enough northerly drift to endanger the Hawaiian Islands. Then as things progressed tropical storms and hurricanes started going northwest a considerably distance prior to still angling west.
By September the northwest direction got very pronounced, and combined with crazy warm waters with patches at 90 F. (32.2 C.), started fueling a series of hurricanes that became almost as consistent as buses down the Malacon. One after another they'd gear up in the Cradle, then march around the corner of Cabo Corrientes (the extreme southern point of the bay that includes Puerto Vallarta) before spinning out toward or below Baja.
Now after more than a month of relatively calm seas and winds we have Vance wanting to flex his muscles, and here's where it gets interesting. Remember that giant clockwise loop Norbert made starting in The Cradle...arcing northwest along the Mexican coast...north over the top of Cabo...circling northeast to cause floods in the desert of Arizona...and finally east to die in Texas.
Expect Vance to make another clockwise run, albeit a much a smaller diameter swing. Small enough that the top arc could, and probably will, send it right over Mazatlan! OK, OK now that I've scared everyone, let me clarify the risk of an actual hurricane here is very slight to highly unlikely. While Vance may well reach (lower) hurricane status, that will be short lived and he should fall back into tropical storm level prior to ever making land.
Here are the reasons:
1. Water Temperatures - The ocean in Northern Mexico has been cooled dramatically by a series of windy days from the north. This reduces the "fuel" factor to generate higher wind speeds. In fact ocean temps have dropped by at least 10 degrees F. (sorry I don't know how to write that in C.), and while out today we were remarking how pleasant it was even in the middle of the day
2. A Short Duration Event - Norbert's damage to Cabo was enhanced by the day after day build up of power and wind / wave speed and size as it approached Baja. Whereas Vance just qualified as a tropical storm today (Thursday), but should reach peak strength barely three days later on Sunday
3. Turn East And Die - The following has little scientific basis, nevertheless is based on over 30 years of anecdotal information. I can't remember how many tropical storms and hurricanes I weathered in Mazatlan, but can say without fail every single one of them weakened...a lot, as they approached the mainland.
Like clockwork I'm predicting we'll see that again. This storm will grow and travel in a direction that throws people into a tizzy of worry. Only to end up as a windy rain storm with some moderately rough seas that passes over around Tuesday. Call it Pacific Pearl luck...or natures gift to the wonderful people of Mazatlan, but it's happened so consistently since the 1970's that it's become routine and expected.
Expect it again.
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